FOMC Mins Signal Fed Interest Rate Hikes ‘On Hold’

FOMC Mins Signal Fed Interest Rate Hikes ‘On Hold’

FOMC Mins Signal Fed Interest Rate Hikes ‘On Hold’


The US Fed policymakers aka FOMC, decided in June that interest rate hikes should stay on hold until they have a handle on the consequences of Britain’s vote on EU membership, according to the minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting released Wednesday.

The minutes of the June 14-15 meeting, which took place ahead of the June 23 referendum in which Britons voted to leave the European Union, showed widespread unease over the so-called “Brexit” vote, including among voting members on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

“Members generally agreed that, before assessing whether another step in removing monetary accommodation was warranted, it was prudent to wait for additional data on the consequences of the U.K. vote,” according to the minutes.

Worries have only intensified since the vote and Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo cited the rise in uncertainty on Wednesday when he argued for holding off on rate hikes until inflation had turned decisively higher.

At the June policy meeting, policymakers also cited a severe slowdown in hiring by U.S. employers as a reason for leaving interest rates steady last month, the minutes showed.

The Brexit vote shocked investors and triggered $2 trillion in losses in global stock markets the day after the referendum.

Anxieties remain, with global financial conditions tightening as investors anticipate it could take years before Britain and the EU agree to new rules on finance, trade and immigration.

On Wednesday, US benchmark and long-dated Treasury yields hit record lows, with some investors betting the Fed would keep rates on hold through Y 2017.

The USD, which has gained more than 2% against a basket of currencies since the Brexit vote and could weigh on US exporters, weakened slightly following publication of the minutes.

Before the British vote, the FOMC had signaled 2 interest rate hikes would likely be needed this year to keep the US economy from eventually overheating.

But since the British referendum, several US Fed policymakers have said the uncertainty warrants caution, including New York Fed President William Dudley who said Tuesday the central bank needed to be patient on rate increases and that it was too soon to know the fallout from the British decision.

A severe slowdown in hiring during May and weak business investment even outside the sagging energy sector had raised questions about the US outlook even before the Brexit vote.

Still, in the FOMC minutes of the June meeting, many Fed policymakers who participated in the policy discussion stressed the sharpness of the hiring slowdown could be statistical noise, and most argued the economy would be ready for rate increases unless a financial or economic shock knocks America off course, according to the minutes.

Since the Brexit vote, the GBP plunged 13% Vs USD, including a 1% decline Wednesday, to a 31 year low, and investors and policymakers are watching out for further signs of financial stress that could hit economic growth in America and worldwide.

Wednesday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA +78.00 at 17918.62, NAS Comp +36.26 at 4859.16, S&P 500 +11.18 at 2099.73

Volume: Trade was heavy with over 1-B/shares exchanged on the NYSE

  • NAS Comp -3.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +1.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 +2.7% YTD
  • DJIA +2.8% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.29) Neutral (0.23) Bullish (0.48) Neutral (0.17)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.16) Neutral (0.23) Neutral (0.21) Neutral (0.06)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.18) Neutral (0.15) Bullish (0.33) Neutral (0.06)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.31) Neutral (-0.23) Bearish (-0.33) Bearish (-0.38)

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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