EURUSD Technical Outlook (Daily)
EURUSD: The USD rose Vs most of its peers, but not those considered safe havens, CHF and JPY, as market’s negative mood prevailed.
The EUR and the GBP suffered, with EUR down towards 1.1200, about 50 pips away from the pre-US NFPs report which triggered these last days’ Bullish run, and GBP seeing 1.4100.
Fears about the result of the upcoming Brexit referendum has participants moving away from risk assets (UK bookies betting 60% against) and running safe havens, although the Forex market entered wait-to-see mode mid US session, ahead of the FOMC’s economic policy decision Wednesday.
The US Fed is expected to remain on hold, but whatever the decision is, it will likely result in sharp moves across the Forex board.
Macro-economic data was largely ignored, although generally encouraging.
In the EU, Industrial Production rose by 1.1% in April, having declined by 0.7% in March.
Retail Sales in the US beat forecast, increasing by 0.5% in May, below previous 1.3%, but above market’s expectations of a 0.3% advance.
As for the EURUSD technical picture, the risk is towards the Southside, as the price is now below the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the May’s decline, around 1.1220, and below all of its MA’s, as the technical indicators lost directional strength within negative territory.
There is a daily ascendant trend line coming from the November 2015 low in at 1.1135 for Wednesday, the 1st Bullish target, should the Fed raise rates. The Key resistance for Wednesday, is around 1.1235, where in the daily , the 20-Day MA converges with the 100-Day MA, meaning that a recovery beyond this zone should favor additional gains up to 1.1300 of higher.
Support marks:1.1210 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance marks: 1.1250 1.1295 1.1340
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