Subscribe to our newsletter

EIA forecasts lower US Crude Oil imports ahead

In its monthly Short-term Energy Outlook STEO published Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration EIA said it expects the net import share of US Crude Oil consumption to drop to 40% in Y 2012, down from 45% a year ago and over 60% in Y 2005.

The EIA forecasts a further drop in imports to 37% of total US consumption in Y 2013, the 1st time since Y 1991 that imports will supply less than 40% of total US consumption.

Total US production in Y 2012 is expected to average 6.4-M BPD, + 800,000 BPD from last year’s total. The EIA expects Y 2013 production of 7.1-M BPD, an increase of 200,000 BPD from last month’s estimate and the highest average annual production rate in the US since Y 1992.

Consumption of Gasoline in the US is forecast to decline by 30,000 BPD in Y 2012, due mainly to increased fuel efficiency in the US fleet. Gasoline consumption is expected to be flat in Y 2013.

Concerning prices, the EIA expects spot prices for Brent Crude Oil to average 112 bbl in Y 2012, declining to 104 a barrel in Y 2013.

The EIA forecasts WTI Crude Oil spot prices to average 89 bbl in Y 2012 and 88 bbl in Y 2013.

The price differential between Brent and WTI is expected to average 21 bbl in Q-4 of this year, and to fall to 11 bbl by the end of Y 2013.

Globally, the EIA forecasts that liquid fuels consumption will rise by 800,000 BPD in Y 2012 and an additional 1-M BPD in Y 2013, driven by demand from emerging markets. OPEC nations are expected to continue supplying more than 30-M BPD, and non-OPEC supply is expected to rise by 1.3-M BPD in Y 2013, more than 50% is expected to come from the US.