Econ 101: No Inflation, No Growth

Econ 101: No Inflation, No Growth

Econ 101: No Inflation, No Growth


A measure of US inflation expectations rose for a 2nd month running in January to its highest mark since mid-2015, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday that reinforced the view that interest rates would keep climbing.

The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly influential gauge of prices for the central bank, found that year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.0%, from 2.8% in December and 2.5% in November.

The expectation 3 years out was 2.9%, from 2.8% the month before. “Both increases were fairly broad-based, but largest among younger and higher-income respondents,” the New York Fed said.

Both measures were last this high in June of Y 2015.

The survey, which started three 3.5 years ago, hit its lowest price marks last year.

The Fed has raised rates 2X in the past 2 years, but policymakers predict more rapid hikes in Y 2017 as low unemployment and expected fiscal stimulus continue to boost prices.

Inflation has remained below the central bank’s preferred 2% target for a few years, but expectations have spiked  since Donald Trump won the Nov. 8 Presidential election.

The internet-based survey is done by a 3rd party and taps a rotating panel of 1,200 household heads.

America First taking a firm hold on the business and consumer sentiment nation wide.

Monday, the major US stock indexes hit record highs, with the benchmark S&P 500’s market value topping $20-T as investors see tax cuts promised by President Donald Trump coming  to the economy.

HeffX-LTN Analysis for GLD: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.14) Neutral (0.06) Neutral (0.08) Bullish (0.28)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.23) Bullish (0.25) Bullish (0.29) Neutral (0.15)

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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