Donald Trump Takes Helm, Gold Bulls Revel
Wednesday, I was talking to some of my pals and told them the the rally in Gold has some room to run.
And now the Gold Bulls are wagering the rally has more room to run too, and that it may have history on their side with the arrival of a new US President.
A look at recent Presidential transitions supports optimism among traders over the metal’s prospects.
Gold has averaged gains of almost 15% in years marking the Inauguration of a new President since the 1970’s, advancing in 5 of those 7 years.
On the other side of that coin, the S&P 500 index of equities declined in four of those years for an average loss over the frame of 0.9%.
From Presidents Gerald Ford to Barack Hussein Obama, Gold has often served as a haven in times of political flux. T
The precious Yellow metal has climbed about 5% this year as Questions over the possible economic impact of Donald Trump’s policies add to investor angst over Brexit and mounting trade frictions.
The Gold Bulls reason that bullion will extend its gain because of the uncertainties of President Trump’s fiscal stimulus program and tensions with trading partners including China rattle investors.
Donald Trump has threatened to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and warned companies that if they ship jobs overseas they will pay additional taxes when they import goods into the US.
He has promised to take a tougher approach toward imports from China, while his pick for Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, has warned America’s trading partners that they need to practice “fair trade.”
Gold marked a gain of 72% in Y 1974, the biggest annual increase of any modern presidential transition year. That was the year Gerald Ford took over for Richard Nixon, who resigned.
The 2nd-highest gainer for a recent changeover year was 24%, in Y 2009, as Barack HusseinObama assumed the helm during the global financial crisis.
Not all Inauguration years have been good for Gold. The metal lost 33% in Y 1981, when Ronald Reagan became Commander in Chief. It also fell in Y 1989, the period marking George H.W. Bush’s start time in the Oval Office.
Gold, which is coming off the worst Quarter in more than 3 years, has in Y 2017 managed to shrug off gains in stocks and prospects for more US rate increases, rising 5.0% to 1,209.1 oz Friday on the COMEX.
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for GLD:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Neutral (-0.16)||Neutral (-0.00)||Neutral (-0.18)||Bearish (-0.29)|
Have a terrific weekend