Daily Economic Outlook December 14, Europe PMI, US GDP, UK GDP
Daily Economic Outlook December 14
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Today’s flash PMI estimates for the euro area will provide further evidence on what momentum, if any, the economy has as it approaches year end. Despite some signs of improving sentiment, there has been as yet little evidence of this feeding through to economic activity. We expect another disappointing set of data this morning, with December estimates for both manufacturing and services remaining below 50. That would be consistent with a third consecutive quarterly decline in GDP in Q4.
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Yesterday’s US data proved to be a mixed bunch but on balance recent information still points to reasonable GDP growth in Q4, particularly when adjusted for the impact of Hurricane Sandy. However, one area that has shown notable weakness of late is manufacturing, due partly to faltering demand from other parts of the world. Nevertheless, October’s decline was probable exaggerated by both Sandy and a big fall in autos production and so some rebound is likely in November.
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In the UK, today’s construction output data for October will give the first indication of whether this, which has been the biggest single contributor to GDP weakness this year, is showing any sign of bottoming out in Q4. The published figures are not seasonally adjusted but will be useful to gauge the underlying trend. Any growth would be a positive indicator for Q4 GDP.
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Linda Johnson,
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Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
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Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals. He is also an active consultant working with Corporations around the World.
He is recognized as one of the leading Economists in South East Asia, as well as the preeminent authority on ASEAN. His opinions and forecasts are widely read by decision makers in the region and Internationally.
Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reached a peak of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.
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