The Daily Bias For USD/JPY Is Neutral

Posted by: : Paul EbelingPosted on: September 17, 2014 The Daily Bias For USD/JPY Is Neutral

The Daily Bias For USD/JPY Is Neutral

Price: 107.11

Bias: getting to the point where the market will force a break.

The underlying MT (medium term) direction is Bullish USD/JPY, while the daily bias is Neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs confirmation.

Note: Key MT support and  resistance marks that may break the MT trend or suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is very important to consider either Bullish or Bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support support and resistance breaks.

Consider buy set ups at: Follow analysis

Consider sell set ups at: 107. 70 – 00

Resistance 107.26 107.39 107.54-65 107.93 108.20 108.41
Support 107.00-05 106.80 106.64 106.40-45 106.24 106.03

Daily outlook USD/JPY

The price development from the 107.39 high is difficult to consider as constructive which tends to imply it was corrective and thus should be due a new high.

Tuesday’s 106.80 low should have been the final corrective low, on that assumption should see gains above 107.21-26 which will confirm a move to around 107.65 (and note 107.77) for a modest correction (25-35 pips) before heading higher to the 107.93 area. Ideally that should be the top.

Below Tuesday’s 106.80 would risk a break of the 106.64 low. If seen, it will confirm a high is in place to trigger losses down to the next support at 106.40-45.

Once this starts it could be a direct move. Keep an eye on EUR/JPY as it approaches the 139.19-39 area from where a deeper correction can be seen.

Medium Term (MT) Outlook USD/JPY

17 September

Seeing gains higher than liked, but within the bounds of the Wave [v] projection limits. So, inclined to the lower targets; the next around 107.54 and there is another at 107.93.

A break above 107.39 suggests the 107.54 area at least, and potentially closer to 107.93…

A break below 106.64 would turn this lower for a deeper correction.

Traders’ SentimentMost of the SWFX market participants consider the Buck to be overvalued relative to JPY, since as many as 69% of open positions are short. Concerning the pending orders, still 62% of them are set to purchase the Buck.

 Stay tuned…


Paul Ebeling


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Paul Ebeling

Pattern Recognition Analyst, equities, commodities, forex
Paul Ebeling is best known for his work as writer and publisher of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly-regarded, weekly financial market letter, where he enjoys an international audience among opinion makers, business leaders, and respected organizations. Something of a pioneer in online stock market and commodities discussion and analysis, Ebeling has been online since 1994. He has studied and worked in the global financial and stock markets since 1984.

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