Crude Oil Falls On Iran Talks, FOMC Focus, Saudi Exports Rise

Posted by: : Paul EbelingPosted on: November 18, 2013 Crude Oil Falls On Iran Talks, FOMC Focus, Saudi Exports Rise

Crude Oil Falls On Iran Talks, FOMC Focus, Saudi Exports Rise

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Crude Oil slipped below the 93.50 mark as traders turn their focus on the talks between Iran and major powers in Geneva on 20-22 November.

Any agreement between the West and Iran will likely mean sanctions will be lifted, increasing market supply and depressing Crude Oil prices.

Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), exported the most Crude Oil in 8 yrs, as its production eased, Saudi Arabia boosted exports in October by 300,000 BPD.

WTI Crude Oil futures for Dec settlement is trading at around 93.42 bbl after falling 0.42

Brent Crude Oil futures for Dec settlement is trading at around 108.10 bbl after falling 0.40

Markets will continue to focus on the US Federal Reserve as the minutes of the last FOMC meeting are due on Wednesday of this week.

Participants nervously are trying to determine if and when the US Fed will start to reduce their quantitative easing (QE-3) program this year or delayed till next year.

Late Friday China unveiled the details of its bold reform plans from its Third Plenum meeting, including easing the 1-child policy and additional financial liberalization, leaving investors assessing how the reforms will impact Crude Oil and Nat Gas demand from the world’s biggest Crude Oil importer.

Nat Gas is trading at $ 3.689 per cubic ft after rising 0.79%

Gasoline is trading at $ 2.6555 per cubic ft after falling 0.08%

Heating Oil (Diesel) is trading at $ 2.9352 a gal after falling 0.13%

Technically speaking:

WTI Crude Oil remains within Bearish trend, consolidating below the Key resistance at 95.40, where as long as price remains below this resistance mark the Bearish trend should remain intact.

The next Southside target is at the 78.6 Fibo retracement mark near 91.50 so long as 95.40 is holding.

Support: 93.50, 93.00, 92.70, 92.20, 91.55

Resistance: 94.00, 94.50, 95.05, 95.40, 96.00

Recommendation: Short Crude Oil below 94.50, targets at 93.40 and 91.70. Stop loss above 95.50.

 

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Paul Ebeling

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Paul Ebeling

Pattern Recognition Analyst, equities, commodities, forex
Paul Ebeling is best known for his work as writer and publisher of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly-regarded, weekly financial market letter, where he enjoys an international audience among opinion makers, business leaders, and respected organizations. Something of a pioneer in online stock market and commodities discussion and analysis, Ebeling has been online since 1994. He has studied and worked in the global financial and stock markets since 1984.
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