China, Asia in Economic Recovery
Asia’s manufacturing sector looks to be on the mend, inflation is tame, policy makers can stimulate if global conditions worsen.
Economic data released Monday showed that China’smanufacturing and services sectors both picked up in November, providing a positive driver for regional and global growth.
Analysts warn of the risks posed by the impending US F-Cliff, a package of tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect in January sans action by US lawmakers, and which could drive the US economy into recession.
Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC, says that scenario would hit growth in Asia, particularly in trade-dependent economies like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong.
While Asian governments, particularly China’s, likely would respond with fresh stimulus, “this would take time to gain traction and thus be too late to prevent a shake-out among the region’s smaller economies in the first quarter,” Mr. Neumann said. “Even a sea of liquidity is no firewall against faltering demand and battered confidence.”
The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index reached a 13-month high of 50.5 in November, up from 49.5 in October, data Monday showed. That mirrored an improvement in China’s official manufacturing PMI, released Saturday, which rose to a 7 month high of 50.6 in November from 50.2 in October.
China’s official non-manufacturing PMI also rose slightly to 55.6 in November, from 55.5 in October.
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Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region the picture was mixed.
In South Korea, manufacturing contracted in November for a sixth straight month but the pace of decline slowed, with the HSBC PMI reaching a five-month high of 48.2 versus 47.4 in October. Export growth accelerated to 3.9% in annual terms, government data released Saturday showed.
In Indonesia, manufacturing activity continued to grow but a bit more slowly, with the HSBC PMI registering 51.5 last month compared with 51.9 in October.
In Vietnam, the sector started to expand in November, with the PMI picking up to 50.5 from 48.7 in October, its highest level since September 2011.
In Australia and Taiwan manufacturing slowed.
The Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index fell 1.6 points in November to 43.6. Taiwan’s monthly PMI fell to 47.4 in November from 47.8 in the previous month. With price growth largely under control, policy makers have room to take action if the outlook darkens.
Inflation in Australia was muted in November, with the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute gauge showing prices falling 0.1%, reversing a 0.1% increase in October.
The moderate inflation data comes ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate meeting Tuesday, when the central bank is expected to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, the lowest level since September 2009. It has already cut the rate by 150 basis points since November 2011.
In South Korea, the consumer price index rose just 1.6% on-year in November, below the central bank’s 2%-4% target range.
The weaker-than-expected figure supports the view that the Bank of Korea will likely continue cutting its benchmark interest rate next year from the current 2.75% level, even after 2 recent cuts, analysts said.
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Heffernan Capital Management
Linda Johnson,
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Sales@Heffcap.com
Singapore
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.
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