Chicago Agriculture Commodities Finished Mixed on the Week
$CORN, $WEAT, $SOYB
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agriculture grains futures finished mixed on the week which ended 14 July, as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report projected higher crop supplies than the market expected.
In its Wednesday released, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA pegged the US MY 2017/2018 Corn ending stocks at 2.32-B bu Vs. the average estimate of 2.181-B bu and last month’s 2.11-B.
The USDA sees US MY 2017/2018 Soybean ending stocks at 460-M bu Vs the trade’s estimate of 495-M bu and USDA’s June estimate of 495-M.
US MY 2017/2018 Wheat ending stocks are pegged at 938-M bu Vs the trade’s estimate of 876-M bu and USDA’s June estimate of 924-M.
CBOT Corn futures fell 15 cents on fluctuating weather forecasts, an increase by USDA in old and new crop US Corn stocks, as well as major exporters’ stocks in its June WASDE.
Analysts point out that changes to corn balance sheets were completely within expectations and that northern hemisphere yields are far from being determined.
The major forecasting overnight Saturday maintain a pattern of warmth and dryness, particularly across the south central Us through 25 July, and central US weather conditions since early June suggests trend yield will not be met.
Wheat futures finished mixed, with winter contracts lower and Spring Wheat higher, which adequately reflects the USDA’s 1st pass at US by-class balance sheets.
Soft Red Winter Wheat stocks will be record large, Hard Red Winter wheat stocks will be down sharply from last year, while stocks are below pipeline with demand rationing needed.
Agriculture analysts’ work indicates the USDA is still some 30-50-M bu too high with its Hard Red Winter Wheat production forecast and so through basis and spreads, spring wheat rationing will be on ongoing process.
It was a wide week of trade in the Soybean market that left spot July down 11 cents and November was near 13 cents lower.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that through Tuesday, funds had covered all of their net short position and held a modest net long position for the 1st time since late April. It was a record week of fund buying, while hedgers were large sellers on the rally.
Weather forecasts and then crop ratings on Monday look to direct trends in the week ahead.
The eastern Corn belt saw good rains last week, while drought looks to drift out of the Dakotas and push South and East.
Crop ratings have been trending lower, and based on rains in the last week analysts expect that crop ratings Monday will be steady to two percent lower than a week ago.