British Pound (£) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (GBPUSD) Never Ending Brexit Tension Rises

British Pound (£) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (GBPUSD) Never Ending Brexit Tension Rises
British Pound (£) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (GBPUSD) Never Ending Brexit Tension Rises
The pound fell below $1.30 after the U.K. hardened its Brexit rhetoric and polls predicted a narrower-than-expected win for Prime Minister Theresa May in June elections.

The pound fell 0.5 percent to $1.2974 as of 8:39 a.m. in London. The pair broke above the crucial $1.30 mark last week, reaching the highest since September, and closed above that level on Friday. Sterling weakened 0.2 percent versus the euro.

  • GBP/USD — Resistance at 1.3048-59, May 18, Sept. 29 high, and support at 1.2927, May 19 low
  • Cable “finds more sellers than buyers above the $1.30,” writes Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a strategist at London Capital Group
  • “There could be a further stagnation followed by a pullback, if the 1.3044 (major 38.2% retrace on post-Brexit selloff) is not successfully broken. Some traders are willing to build tactical short positions on the pound before the June 8 general election”

“Opinion polls show a sharp narrowing in the Conservative lead, from a huge 19 percent to sizeable 9 percent, while warnings that the U.K. could walk away from an exit deal if the final exit bill is too big don’t encourage optimism about negotiations that start in earnest after the U.K. election on June 8,” said Kit Juckes, London-based strategist at Societe Generale SA in a client note. He added that “shorts in GBP/CAD and GBP/NOK are a better bet for now.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 1.32.

The projected lower bound is: 1.28.

The projected closing price is: 1.30.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.9057. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed down -0.001 at 1.295. Volume was 1% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 64% narrower than normal.

Open   High    Low     Close    Volume
1.296   1.300   1.292   1.295    135,170

Technical Outlook
Short Term:               Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:                Bullish

Moving Averages:  10-period   50-period   200-period
Close:                        1.29             1.27             1.26
Volatility:                 7                  10                12
Volume:                   136,196       127,966      138,993

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 2.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 44 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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