The British ‘Bookies’ are seeing the Brexit Phenomenon

The British ‘Bookies’ are seeing the Brexit Phenomenon

The British ‘Bookies’ are seeing the Brexit Phenomenon

The pattern of bets in the US Presidential Election looks similar to what happened before Britain voted to leave the EU.

Donald Trump’s odds are currently 5/2 and Hillary Clinton’s odds are 2/5, according to a compilation of various gambling sites done by Oddschecker.com.

That means a $2 bet on Donald Trump wins you $5, while a $5 bet on Hillary Clinton wins you only $2.

The Big Q: So, more people are betting on Hillary Clinton to win right?

The Big A: Wrong.

The phenomenon is similar to the pre-Brexit action, when the odds favored what most sober-headed pundits believed would be the result: Remain.

However, more actual bets were placed on Brexit.

The odds reflected how much money was wagered, not how many individual bets were placed. In this case, more money is being bet on Hillary Clinton but Donald Trump has attracted a larger number of wagers.

By this metric,  Donald Trump has been in the lead since March and pulled way ahead in October

All in all, 61% of bets on the 2 candidates have favored Donald Trump but only 40% of the combined stakes are riding on him.

Yet when assigning an “implied probability” of victory, the web site uses the odds rather than the number of bets. As a result, Clinton’s 71% implied probability looks similar to what the go-to presidential horse-race site FiveThirtyEight is showing.

But there’s no getting around the fact that more bets are being placed on Donald Trump.

He may be catching up by the amount of money as well.

Monday and Tuesday, following the news that the FBI had discovered more e-mails related to a probe of Hillary Clinton, 91% about 100,000 euros ($111,000) in wagers placed with Irish bookmaker Paddy Power Betfair were for Donald Trump.

 

There is something intriguing about data based on money placed at risk.

The same could be said of the stock markets this week.

The S&P 500 dropped for a 7th straight day, something it has not done since Y 2011.  The VIX index of implied volatility in the equity market has surged almost 50% in the same time frame.

We cannot ignore this data.

As, there is a clear relationship between the betting trends of the upcoming US Presidential  election and that of Brexit earlier in the year.

Stay tuned…

 

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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