Brexit Predictions Were Wrong
The Bank of England’s chief economist says forecasters got it wrong when they predicted a sharp economic downturn if Britain voted to leave the European Union.
Andy Haldane says the country’s strong economic performance since the June 2016 referendum has been a surprise to all, and the economic forecasting profession “is to some degree in deep crisis.”
Before the historic referendum, many forecasters said a vote to leave the EU could cause the Great British Pound to fall by as much as 20% and push the economy back into recession.
The GBP did dive, but other economic indicators remain strong.
Speaking Thursday at an Institute for Government event, Mr. Haldane said it was impossible to predict how the economy would fare after Britain leaves the 28-nation bloc, because that depends on 2 years of complex exit negotiations.
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