Australia’s East Coast Battered by Deadly Storms and Flooding

Australia’s East Coast Battered by Deadly Storms and Flooding

Australia’s East Coast Battered by Deadly Storms and Flooding

Australian insurance companies exposed to deadly storms that struck the east coast at the weekend.

It is just Monday, and so far, insurance companies have received more than 11,000 claims with estimated insured losses of $38-M.

There was more severe damage on Sydney’s northern beaches, some of the most expensive real estate in Australia, where houses were torn apart by a swell that inundated the suburbs of Narrabeen and Collaroy.

It is impossible to make any direct connection between climate change and the low pressure system that battered Australia’s east coast over recent days.

The damage is an illustration of the kinds of impact likely from the weather events that climate change is expected to make more frequent.

Recently-published research from the Climate Institute shows the value of housing stock around Australia exposed to extreme events could be in the region of $90-B, with significant potential implications for the insurance and banking sectors.

The institute last week published a discussion paper titled “There goes the neighbourhood: Climate change, Australian housing and the financial sector” looked at the risks to the Australian property stock including the potential exposure of banks and insurance companies, from extreme weather events. It warned that “continuing gaps in policy, regulations and industry” made it “highly likely that some of this new stock is more vulnerable than buyers, residents and other stakeholders would assume.”

The research paper notes:

  1. Homes are being built, bought and sold in locations with exposure to weather and climate-related risks, particularly flood, storms, rising sea levels and coastal erosion. As the climate changes due to human activity, these risks will be exacerbated.
  2. The aggregate exposure of the Australian housing stock is likely to be worsening as housing continues to be built with no requirement to consider climate change.
  3. This does not mean all these houses will be rendered uninhabitable. Well before becoming uninhabitable – and even without suffering any damage – some housing will become so risky as to be “uninsurable”, with premiums reaching an extremely high level or simply not being offered at all, as insurers deem the risk is unacceptably high. Even a house that is never actually damaged can be subject to very high premiums if the risk of costly damage is high.

Kate MacKenzie, investment and governance manager at The Climate Institute and the lead author on the report, said the research found that “problems exist with residential housing exposure to even historical levels of risk and climate change will make that worse”.

The Climate Institute paper highlights how challenged property pockets could become increasingly widespread, requiring policy responses from both government and affected businesses.

“Banks and other lenders will insist that mortgagors have home insurance when the loan is issued; but that only covers the first year of their mortgage; generally it is not checked in subsequent years. Under-insurance is known to be widespread,” Ms. MacKenzie said.

“Homeowners will often turn to their insurance, but some hazards are generally not covered by home insurance. Actions of the sea, for example, are typically excluded. Who should bear the cost of repairing this damage? Should fellow ratepayers be funding protective measures such as seawalls and groynes?

“If mortgages are outstanding on these properties, will it result in impairment to the loan? Were banks and their regulators aware of the risks? Were these houses valued appropriately at the point of sale, considering this risk?”

Previous research based on Y 2008 Australian property prices assessed the value of stock at risk from climate change at around $63-B. The Climate Institute paper estimates the current value, based on the increase in Australian housing stock and the lift in the property market, would be around $88-B in Y 2015 prices, although it believes this is a conservative figure.

This is because the risk assessment model “does not include river flooding, or indeed any other natural perils such as bushfire or heatwaves which may damage homes now or in the future”, according to one of the appendices to the research paper. It also “does not include localized storm surge modelling for some states notably, Queensland”.

“The report also does not incorporate seawalls and levees, which may reduce the value at risk estimates, but is unlikely to be enough to offset the other factors listed here,” the authors wrote.

You can see the full discussion paper here.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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