On Friday night the Australian dollar broke through US78 cents for the first time in more than two years. The Australian dollar appears Confident to rise to US80¢ soon. The reason for Friday’s surge was that American retail sales fell, against expectations of a rise, and the monthly CPI change was zero. Annual inflation remains mired at 1.6 per cent.
The US dollar promptly fell again, stocks and bonds rallied. Since peaking on January 3 in a mist of Trump euphoria, the US dollar trade weighted index has depreciated 8 per cent — basically the same as the AUDUSD rate has risen.
The Australian Dollar enjoyed a better week than might have been expected, mostly thanks to the broad-based US Dollar weakness which came along with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony.
The currency hit a more than two-year high on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes showed the board holds a more hawkish view of the economy’s neutral rate than consensus suggests, sending the currency to a high of US79.07¢ for a US1¢ intraday jump. Earlier, the euro broke through the critical $US1.15 level for the first time in more than a year.
Here’s the scoreboard as at 7am AEST, revealing that the Aussie not only surged against the US dollar on Tuesday, but also against all of the major crosses.
AUD/USD 0.7915 , 0.0117 , 1.50%
AUD/JPY 88.66 , 0.84 , 0.96%
AUD/CNH 5.3395 , 0.0655 , 1.24%
AUD/EUR 0.6848 , 0.0055 , 0.81%
AUD/GBP 0.6069 , 0.0096 , 1.61%
AUD/NZD 1.0760 , 0.0111 , 1.04%
AUD/CAD 0.9994 , 0.0098 , 0.99%
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.76.
The projected upper bound is: 0.80.
The projected lower bound is: 0.78.
The projected closing price is: 0.79.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.5109. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 78.13. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 117 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 168.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.793. Volume was 68% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 95% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume
0.791 0.794 0.791 0.793 25,942
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.77 0.76 0.75
Volatility: 11 9 10
Volume: 74,607 80,778 97,508
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 5.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into AUD= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 31 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that AUD= is currently in an overbought condition.
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