Australian Dollar (A$) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (AUDUSD) Breaking Down

Australian Dollar (A$) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (AUDUSD) Breaking Down

Australian Dollar (A$) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (AUDUSD) Breaking Down

Data for the Australian Dollar

The main release for the Australian Dollar is April Retail Sales out on Thursday, June 01 at 2.30 BST.

Recent lower-than-expected Consumer Confidence data warns of downside risks to retail sales.

The market is expecting a rise of 0.3% from the -0.1% previously.

The other main release which could potentially impact on AUD is Chinese data, as Chinese Manufacturing (and Services) PMI are out at 02.00 on Wednesday, May 31 and at 02.45 on Thursday 1 Caixin PMI is forecast to decline to 50.1 from 50.3 – but only a break below the key 50 level which differentiates growth from contraction would be significant.

The recent news that credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Chinese debt a notch has weighed on the outlook for Australia as a key trading neighbour and the Aussie Dollar, so more bad news from China could also have a negative effect.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.73.

The projected closing price is: 0.74.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.2902. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 80 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.744. Volume was 50% below average (consolidating)(neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open    High    Low     Close    Volume
0.743    0.745   0.742  0.744   45,854

Technical Outlook
Short Term:                Neutral
Intermediate Term:  Bullish
Long Term:                Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period      50-period      200-period
Close:                       0.75                0.75                0.75
Volatility:                6                      8                     10
Volume:                  84,920            82,189           101,268

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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