AUDUSD Trading Outlook

AUDUSD Trading Outlook

AUDUSD Trading Outlook

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 32.30.

The projected upper bound is: 31.94.

The projected lower bound is: 31.18.

The projected closing price is: 31.56.

Australian Dollar closed up 0.043 at 31.581. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 45% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
31.541 31.673 31.485 31.581 1,930

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 31.92 32.21 32.64
Volatility: 7 8 7
Volume: 2,033 2,111 1,396

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX TWD= is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of TWD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on TWD= and have had this outlook for the last 41 periods.

Australia’s central bank cut interest rates to a new record low Tuesday in a widely expected decision after a recent run of soft inflation readings.

The 25 basis point cut to 1.5 percent means the Reserve Bank of Australia has slashed rates by 300 basis points since November 2011 to support the economy as it transitions towards non-resources growth after a mining investment boom.

“The board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting,” bank governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement.

Measures to keep property prices from overheating appeared to be working amid only moderate rises, he said, adding this “suggests that the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished”.

The central bank decision follows offical figures last month showing that consumer prices fell to a 17-year annual low of 1.0 percent in April-June, well off the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2.0-3.0 percent inflation.

The majority of economists had forecast that the RBA would cut interest rates, with 20 out of 25 surveyed by Bloomberg News predicting the move.

The Aussie dollar fell 0.4 percent to 75.09 US cents at 2:33 pm in Sydney, according to Bloomberg.

Australia has been growing more strongly than most of the world’s advanced economies but like most countries is struggling to kickstart inflation, with oil prices subdued and global trade tepid.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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