Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Trading Outlook

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Trading Outlook

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Trading Outlook

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 82.74.

The projected upper bound is: 102.19.

The projected lower bound is: 92.98.

The projected closing price is: 97.58.

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed down -1.080 at 97.170. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 171% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
98.280 98.860 96.820 97.170 53,467

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 88.16 81.50 77.61
Volatility: 47 34 40
Volume: 21,445,500 13,547,151 15,578,992

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 25.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BABA.K (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.K and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BABA.K is currently in an overbought condition.

Momentum Indicators Negative

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.2972. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 81.08. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 100 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 192.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a holding company. The Company is engaged in online and mobile commerce through offering of products, services and technology that enable merchants, brands and other businesses to transform the way they market, sell and operate in the People’s Republic of China (the PRC or China) and internationally. It operates through the provision of online and mobile commerce and related services segment. The Company provides retail and wholesale marketplaces available through both personal computer and mobile interfaces in the PRC and internationally. Retail marketplaces and services operated by the Company include the China online shopping destination (Taobao Marketplace); the China brands and retail platform (Tmall); the China group buying site that offers products by aggregating demand from consumers through limited time discounted sales (Juhuasuan), and the global consumer marketplace targeting consumers (AliExpress).

The following two tabs change content below.
Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

You must be logged in to post comments :