Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Trading Outlook

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Trading Outlook

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Trading Outlook

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 79.40.

The projected upper bound is: 89.32.

The projected lower bound is: 81.33.

The projected closing price is: 85.33.

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed up 0.240 at 85.240. Volume was 12% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
85.050 85.630 84.800 85.240 15,349,237

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 84.01 80.27 77.31
Volatility: 17 32 40
Volume: 10,128,413 14,668,576 15,422,925

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 10.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BABA.K at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.K and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.5168. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 96 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 141.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a holding company. The Company is engaged in online and mobile commerce through offering of products, services and technology that enable merchants, brands and other businesses to transform the way they market, sell and operate in the People’s Republic of China (the PRC or China) and internationally. It operates through the provision of online and mobile commerce and related services segment. The Company provides retail and wholesale marketplaces available through both personal computer and mobile interfaces in the PRC and internationally. Retail marketplaces and services operated by the Company include the China online shopping destination (Taobao Marketplace); the China brands and retail platform (Tmall); the China group buying site that offers products by aggregating demand from consumers through limited time discounted sales (Juhuasuan), and the global consumer marketplace targeting consumers (AliExpress).

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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