Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Heads Back to $100

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Heads Back to $100

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) Heads Back to $100

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 79.76.

The projected upper bound is: 99.50.

The projected lower bound is: 83.37.

The projected closing price is: 93.44.

Candlesticks Point to Rally

A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 3 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed up 2.090 at 87.330. Volume was 102% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 17% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
86.010 87.730 86.010 87.330 28,195,880

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 84.43 80.37 77.36
Volatility: 20 33 39
Volume: 11,785,103 13,655,266 15,451,350

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

ALIBABA GRP ADR gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 12.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BABA.K (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.K and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BABA.K is currently in an overbought condition.

Momentum

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.9654. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 70.36. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 97 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 230.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a holding company. The Company is engaged in online and mobile commerce through offering of products, services and technology that enable merchants, brands and other businesses to transform the way they market, sell and operate in the People’s Republic of China (the PRC or China) and internationally. It operates through the provision of online and mobile commerce and related services segment. The Company provides retail and wholesale marketplaces available through both personal computer and mobile interfaces in the PRC and internationally. Retail marketplaces and services operated by the Company include the China online shopping destination (Taobao Marketplace); the China brands and retail platform (Tmall); the China group buying site that offers products by aggregating demand from consumers through limited time discounted sales (Juhuasuan), and the global consumer marketplace targeting consumers (AliExpress).

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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