Technical Analysis for EURUSD (Daily)
Major currencies’ pairs are mostly stable in Asia ahead of the upcoming Central Bank’s (Fed, BOJ) events.
The London opening brought some USD selling interest, with Buck weakening Vs most of its major peers, and accelerating its decline after the release of March US Durable Goods orders, which rose 0.8% compared to February, less than expected as demand for capital equipment remained weak.
The core reading fell by 0.2% in the same frame, indicating the economy is struggling to recover. US consumer confidence fell 1.9 points in April, down to 94.2, while the Markit services PMI rose to 52.1, missing expectations of 52.3.
The EURUSD advanced up to 1.1339 before turning South to trim most of its daily gains, and closed the day in the 1.1280 region, as investors are not willing to risk much ahead of the FOMC decision.
The US Fed is expected to remain maintain the status quo, with focus then on the wording of the statement.
Should the Fed announce that it sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as “balanced” or “nearly balanced,” it will be understood as a sign that the Fed is 1 step closer to raise rates and therefore give the Buck some support.
The 4 hours posts a positive tone, the direction will depend on how the market reacts to the Fed’s policy announcement Wednesday afternoon.
The daily high as mentioned is the immediate resistance, followed by the 1.1380/90 region, where the pair presents multiple daily highs from these past months.
Gains beyond this last mark should lead to a test of the critical 1.1460 region, and a move higher opens the way the rally can extend to 1.1500 near term, and leave then doors opened for a rally up to 1.1713, the August 2015 high.
The immediate short term support comes at 1.1270, followed by 1.1220, the Fibo mark. It looks unlikely that the single currency can break below this mark, unless the Fed makes it clear that it will raise interest rates in June, then the next Bearish target is 1.1160.
Support marks:1.1270 1.1230 1.1200
Resistance marks: 1.1315 1.1340 1.1385
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