2013 Issuance Outlook
December 14th, 2012
From Lloyds Bank
Introduction
Following an admittedly heavy and difficult supply year with particularly Spanish and Italian auctions determining the market tone in terms of risk on/off sentiment, issuance will remain one of the relevant market themes in 2013 across the Euro area. Market access remains the key for peripheral countries (to qualify for OMT if eventually needed) while their auction performance will be again closely scrutinized by the market. Issuing agencies are expected to avoid the 2012 mistakes that can lead to severe market reactions and essentially higher yield levels.
Market access is also the key ‘word’ for Ireland and Portugal as they advance towards completion of their respective support programs. Both are expected to return to bond markets in 2013 with participants contemplating OMT support once market access has been re-established. Below we present the main issuance themes for the euro area and a summary of the outlook for gilt issuance.
2013 Euro area Issuance outlook
Euro area countries’ supply (excluding the 3 program-supported sovereigns) is forecast at c. €789bn which is c. €55bn lower compared to 2012 issuance. This decrease in issuance is predominantly driven by improved budget deficits and due less to a €12.7bn fall in redemptions. Including Ireland and Portugal, the aggregate issuance size increases to c. €803bn.
Read the full report at Lloyds Bank website here.
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